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☆ The Japanese don't necessarily want a much stronger yen: HSBC economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Japanese don't necessarily want a much stronger yen: HSBC economistFrederic Neumann, HSBC's chief Asia economist, discusses the outlook for yen intervention, and says "the weak yen plays a functional role in Japan's reflation — the Japanese don't want necessarily a much stronger yen, so long as the depreciation is orderly."

Persons: Frederic Neumann, Japan's reflation Organizations: HSBC Locations: HSBC's, Asia

☆ Fastest way to restore Chinese consumer confidence is stabilizing the housing market, says HSBC
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFastest way to restore Chinese consumer confidence is stabilizing the housing market, says HSBCFrederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, says although there are policies trying to address that problem, "we haven't seen … quick enough moves to really dispel any concerns around developers."

Persons: HSBC Frederic Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: Asia

☆ China doubles down on manufacturing, leaving real estate behind
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

China News Service | China News Service | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China revealed this week it aims to spend more than a billion dollars to bolster manufacturing and domestic tech in a bid to remain globally competitive, while divulging little new support for the struggling real estate market. Industrial support clearly ranked first on Beijing's priority list for the year ahead, according to three major plans released this week as part of China's annual parliamentary meetings. Chinese authorities in 2020 intensified a crackdown on real estate developers' high reliance on debt for growth. Within that second priority, the finance ministry said it would allocate 31.3 billion yuan for improving vocational education. The government work report presented by Premier Li Qiang gave real estate a similar level of prominence.

Persons: Frederic Neumann, Li Qiang Organizations: Seres, China News Service, Getty, Ministry of Finance, HSBC, UBS, National Development, Reform Commission Locations: Chongqing, China, BEIJING, Asia, Beijing, U.S

☆ Despite strong Lunar New Year holiday data, consumer spending in China isn’t roaring back just yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Laura He | Marc Stewart | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But according to CNN calculations based on official data, the average tourism-related spending per trip was below pre-pandemic levels, as consumer confidence remains weak amid deflationary pressure. However, the most recent holiday season took place over eight days from February 10 to February 18, which was one day more than previous periods. On average, 59.25 million domestic trips per day were made during this holiday period, slightly lower than the 59.29 million trips per day taken in 2019. Movie ticket sales reached a record 8 billion yuan ($1.11 billion) during the eight-day holiday season, according to data released on Sunday by China Film Administration. “The headwinds to growth remain severe and it will take more than a bump in holiday travel for market sentiment to recover,” said Neumann.

Persons: ” Nomura, ”, Frederic Neumann, Neumann, “ Organizations: Beijing CNN, CNN, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, Hangzhou East Railway, National Immigration Administration, China Film Administration, HSBC, China Index Holdings, Shenzhen Component Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Hangzhou, China's Zhejiang province, Macao, Asia, Shanghai, Shenzhen

☆ As global rates turn, banks in India and Indonesia set to win
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Loan growth at Asian banks is estimated to rise from 4.5% this year to 10% next year, LSEG data shows, with banks in India and Indonesia leading with 15% and 11% growth, respectively. Ng likes banks in India and Indonesia, given the better economic growth in those economies and ability of banks to sustain margins. LSEG data shows profits at banks in India and Indonesia will grow 13% and 11% respectively next year, nearly double the 6% average rise across Asia-Pacific banks. That compares to price-to-book ratio for MSCI's index for all-country Asian banks (.dMIAS0CB00PUS) of 0.9. Banks in Australia are estimated to see a drop of 5% in profit in 2024 while profits at Singapore banks will be flat.

Persons: Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Morgan, Yao Ng, abrdn, Ng, Vinay Agarwal, Agarwal, Morgan Stanley, Ankur Banerjee, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S . Federal, Fed, HSBC, ICICI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, FSSA Investment Management, Indonesia's Bank Central Asia, BCA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Asia, Japan, J.P, Pacific, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Banks, Australia, China, Bengaluru

☆ What Wall Street can expect from key Biden-Xi meeting as U.S.-China relations remain tense
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Chinese companies, meanwhile, have accelerated in global patent holdings in the cybersecurity sector, according to a recent Nikkei report. More reassurance to Chinese investors To be sure, while these stocks continue to rally, investors in the U.S. largely remain cautious about making any trades based on expectations ahead of the Biden-Xi talks. If anything, Chinese investors could leave Wednesday with more reassurance—which China's economy desperately needs as it struggles to make a post-pandemic recovery. Chinese investors "remain concerned that the deterioration in the bilateral political relationship could have a negative impact on the Chinese economy," Matthews investment strategist Andy Rothman said. Shaun Rein of China Market Research Group told CNBC last week that the meeting "might lower down the temperature," but that he does not expect "anything meaningful" to come from it.

Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Biden, Xi, Brian Gardner, Gardner, Neo Wang, Wang, Tesla, BYD, Matthews, Andy Rothman, Shaun Rein, Rein, Derek Scissors, CNBC's Organizations: HSBC, Economic Cooperation, South China Morning Post, U.S . Department of Commerce, Nikkei, Micro Devices, Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Micron, MU, Microsoft, Biden, China Market Research Group, CNBC, American Enterprise Institute Locations: China, U.S, Asia, San Francisco, Washington, Beijing, Tesla's China, Europe, South Korea, Japan

Lending data from China's central bank offers a glimpse of government priorities: as of the end of September, outstanding loans to the troubled property sector fell 0.2% year-on-year but lending to the manufacturing sector jumped 38.2%. This time, the government's focus is narrower, targeting high-tech and "advanced manufacturing", a goal laid out in 2021 in the 14th five-year plan. It grew 11.3% in the first nine months of 2023 year-on-year, compared with 6.3% for overall manufacturing investment, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics. For example, Guangdong province has increased lending to both high-tech and advanced manufacturing by about 45%, state media reported. During the first half of 2023, outstanding loans to the high-tech manufacturing sector in the eastern province of Shandong jumped 67%.

Persons: Jens Eskelund, Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Tao Wang, Wang, Fu, Lu Zhengwei, Siyi Liu, Kripa Jayaram, Robert Birsel Organizations: Rights, European Chamber of Commerce, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, U.S, Reuters Graphics, overcapacity, HSBC, UBS, China's National Bureau of Statistics, Rystad Energy, EV, China Passenger Car Association, Bank, Industrial Bank, Thomson Locations: Suqian, Jiangsu province, China, CHINA, Rights BEIJING, Europe, Beijing, San Francisco, Xi, Asia, Guangdong province, Shandong, Dongguan, Shanghai

☆ Indian economy regains its swagger as China stumbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New Delhi CNN —India’s economy is like an elephant. India’s economy is currently worth nearly $3.5 trillion, making it the world’s fifth largest. “India’s economy is comfortably placed to grow at an annual rate of at least 6% in the coming few years,” Barclays said. But even as India’s heft is increasing, it is far from recreating the economic miracle China unleashed decades ago. It will, no doubt — though it won’t be enough to shield the world economy should China’s economy stumble badly,” they added.

Persons: Narendra Modi, ”, Eswar Prasad, Modi, Prasad, Ludovic Marin, Mukesh Ambani’s, Gautam Adani’s, Willy Shih, Frederic Neumann, Justin Feng Organizations: New, New Delhi CNN, Economic, Cornell University, International Monetary Fund, China, Barclays, IMF, ” Barclays, Hindustan Times, Modi, bonanza, Unified, Bharat, Getty, Bank, Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, Apple, Harvard Business School, HSBC Locations: New Delhi, India, Switzerland, Davos, ”, ’, China, ” New Delhi, Sewri, Mumbai Bhushan, AFP, Beijing, Washington

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

☆ What China's slow-motion real estate crisis means for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Christian Nunley | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's real estate industry is collapsing in slow motion. And now the International Monetary Fund just cut its global growth forecasts for 2024 and called out China's real estate crisis as a big reason why. Youth unemployment is at record levels, gross domestic product forecasts have been lowered and the ongoing real estate crisis has been hitting consumer confidence and foreign investment in the country. "China's shrinking real estate sector over the coming years will really have a huge impact on heavy industry, on the commodity markets globally," he said. There’s going to be less cement being used — less glass, for example.

Persons: Frederic Neumann, Neumann Organizations: International Monetary Fund, HSBC, CNBC Locations: China, Asia, Beijing

ON TRACK FOR GOVT GDP TARGETThe recovery momentum suggests the government's full year 2023 growth target of around 5.0% is likely to be achieved. The key issue is what growth target the government will set and how much fiscal easing will take place." The statistics bureau said China would be able to hit the 2023 growth target if the fourth quarter growth tops 4.4%. Moody's Analytics has also raised its 2023 growth projection to 5% from 4.9%. The faltering property sector has hit some of the biggest developers in the country.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Zhiwei Zhang, Tingshu Wang, Frederic Neumann, Louise Loo, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Kevin Yao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Index, New, REUTERS, Nomura, JPMorgan, Analysts, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Global Research, HSBC, Oxford Economics, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Brisbane, U.S, Beijing, China, New Zealand, Asia

☆ Evergrande stock crashes again as fears of collapse grow
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —Shares of Evergrande Group crashed again on Wednesday as fears grew of a potential liquidation of the company, the poster child of China’s property crisis. Evergrande’s woes deepened this week, after it warned that its offshore debt restructuring plan may be in trouble because of a regulatory probe into its main subsidiary in mainland China. That was thanks to a rise in revenue because of a “short boom” in China’s property market earlier this year, the company said then. Evergrande has been trying to implement a government-supervised restructuring of its debts, which stood at $328 billion at the end of June. Evergrande was forced to cancel meetings with creditors scheduled for this week, in part because recent sales have been weaker than it expected.

Persons: Evergrande, ”, Jun Rong Yeap, Frederic Neumann, ” — Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Evergrande Group, Hong, Hong Kong, IG Group, HSBC, CNN Locations: Hong Kong, China, Evergrande, United States, Asia, Beijing

☆ Supply chains may be moving out of China and into Asia — but they aren't really decoupling from the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Supply chains are diversifying away from China, causing a shift in global-trade patterns. Data shows that while manufacturing activity for end products has been moving out of China, supply chains haven't decoupled from the country. "Companies are moving manufacturing processes to other countries, including parts of Asia and North America, to diversify their supply chains. Companies are moving their supply chains out of China. As Insider reported in April, even Chinese companies are moving their supply chains out of China to avoid risks.

Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Misha Govshteyn, Nomura, Sonal Varma, reexported, —, Frederic Neumann, Yukon Huang, Genevieve Slosberg, Lu Yucong, Carnegie's Huang, MaroFab's Govshteyn Organizations: Service, Apple, Mazda, Asia Supply, Nomura Holdings, East, HSBC, Association of Southeast, Nations, Carnegie Asia Program, Financial Times Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Asia, Washington, Beijing, Vietnam, Bangladesh, North America, Houston, South Korea, Hong Kong, China's, India, Japan, Europe, Yukon, America, United States, Guangdong

☆ Indian rice export ban has an 'unintended side effect,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndian rice export ban has an 'unintended side effect,' economist saysFrederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, discusses the ban's impact on regional markets such as Malaysia and the Philippines.

Persons: Frederic Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: Asia, Malaysia, Philippines

☆ China's trade slump narrows as stabilisation signs emerge
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

“The trade data is marginally better, but I don’t think we should be reading too much into that: trade is still contracting,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “There is a bit of a sign here of stabilisation, but I think there’s still a long way to go,” he added. “Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors, the most important of which is obviously domestic demand.”Governments around the world are nervous about China’s economic slowdown with many exporting nations highly dependent on the country’s market for growth. However, trade with Japan dropped sharply, with outbound shipments from China to its neighbour down 20% in August year-on-year, while imports worsened by 17%. China posted a trade surplus of $68.36 billion in August, compared with a forecast $73.80 billion and a July figure of $80.6 billion.

Persons: Aly, ”, Frederic Neumann, Zhou Hao, it’s, Nie Wen Organizations: REUTERS, HSBC, Guotai, “, Australian, Hwabao Trust Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, Tokyo, Brazil

However, in a hopeful sign for growth, conditions did not materially worsen even though the survey showed factories under persistent pressure. China's major manufacturing rivals in the region Japan and South Korea also reported sharp declines in output on Thursday. "It's too early to tell, but today's print suggests that a sequential uptick in growth activity in the third quarter could still be possible," said Louise Loo, senior economist with Oxford Economics. Policymakers remain under pressure to boost domestic demand as the global economy continues to slow. Going forward, "the actual implementation and effectiveness of policy support will be the key indicator to watch," he added.

Persons: It's, Louise Loo, Pan Gongsheng, Frederic Neumann, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Joe Cash, Qiaoyi Li, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Oxford Economics, Reuters, People's Bank of, Global Research Asia, HSBC, Jones, Thomson Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, Rights BEIJING, Japan, South Korea, People's Bank of China, United States, Europe, Asia

☆ It's not realistic to be completely decoupled from China, HSBC says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's not realistic to be completely decoupled from China, HSBC saysFrederic Neumann of the bank discusses the Group of Seven's aim of de-risking, rather than decoupling, from China.

In a country of 1.4 billion people, job fairs are one of the most efficient ways for employers and workers to connect. There will be more job seekers battling for offers this year." About 60% cited the "uncertain economic environment" as the main factor affecting their confidence, up from 48.4% in 2022. Policymakers are expected to aim for growth of about 5%, which would still be below the blistering pre-pandemic pace. ($1 = 6.8767 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Xiaoyu Yin Editing by Marius Zaharia and Gerry DoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Hong Kong CNN —China will fully reopen borders with its special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao next week, in what is expected to be a major boost for the economies of the two cities. From Monday, travelers entering mainland China from Hong Kong or Macao will no longer need to provide proof of negative Covid tests, as long as they have not traveled abroad in the previous week, the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office said in a Friday statement. Hong Kong is a major international financial center, and, before the pandemic, Macao was the world’s casino capital. Over the past three years, limited cross-border travel to mainland China has been listed as the top concern for businesses across the city, according to industry groups. Businesses began seeing some relief last month, when residents of Hong Kong and mainland China were permitted to resume two-way, quarantine-free travel.

☆ HSBC: Short-term uncertainty but China's supply chain ripple effect to be limited
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHSBC: Short-term uncertainty but China's supply chain ripple effect to be limitedFrederic Neumann, managing director and co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, discusses the eruption of protests against Covid restrictions in China and the potential impact on global markets.

Hong Kong/Tokyo CNN Business —A quarter of a century ago, a major financial crisis ripped through Asia, shaking its economies to the core. “I do not expect a repeat of the [1997] Asian Financial Crisis this time,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ Research. “Importantly, there is not the same build up of foreign denominated debt in recent years, which was one of the triggers of the Asian Financial Crisis,” Goh added. China and Japan have the world’s two biggest foreign exchange reserves, holding $3 trillion and $1.3 trillion respectively. “Asia’s resilience in the face of the current global storm is partly the result of reform that the Asian Financial Crisis prompted,” Neumann from HSBC said.

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